Good morning investors; I hope you all had a great weekend and feel ready for this week! Here’s what you need to know to start your week off.

• There’s a regulatory war between the SEC and Crypto (Mainly Coinbase)

• Another FED hike is coming, and what that means

• Ever heard of stagflation? Well, it looks like we might have it

📺 What To Watch For

1. Apparently, inflation is really hard to get rid of. We all know that the narrative for 2023 has been that the FED is going to raise interest rates until inflation drops back down to its 2% target. Well, ever since they have been raising interest rates banks have been failing left and right which is a really big problem. So, the FED has been left with a difficult choice, do they continue raising interest rates until inflation stops, or do they back off and stop causing harm in the banking sector? Well, it looks like the FED is going to keep raising rates and let the strongest survive in terms of which banks will fail next. The FED will meet Wednesday of this week and announce their decision, but it seems they will raise interest rates by another 25 basis points. 

1. Stagflation is the worst of both worlds. Imagine inflation being high and no growth happening within the economy! That sounds like an awful time, but it also sounds like a really likely scenario. PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) rose by 0.3% last month which means that people continue to spend more and more money each month, which is the opposite of what the FED wanted. Everything seems to be dropping in the US EXCEPT inflation…

🚨 What You Missed

Coinbase V. SEC Showdown. The SEC has been coming after everyone and everything that has anything to do with cryptocurrency. But, thankfully we’ve got a good old-fashioned backyard brawl on our hands because Coinbase made a video responding to their well’s notice from the SEC and is also SUING THE SEC themselves.

📊 Important Indicators

Treasury Yield Spreads

It seems like a recession officially happens once the 10Y/3M yield curve uninverts, which currently has not happened but looks like it could in the next 3-6 months

Mortgage Rates

Good luck trying to get a house nowadays…

🐦 Twitter Takeaways

Scary How Fast Things Can Fail

A Few Channels Worth Checking Out

Coding Data W/ No Experience

🌎 Important Events This Week (Bloomberg Calendar)

Wednesday (5/3): FOMC Meeting

• This is where the FED is going to announce is they are going to raise interesting rates and by how much. Currently, there’s a consensus that there will be an 86% chance that they raise rates by 25 basis points.

Thursday (5/4): ECB Interest Rate Decision

• Similar to the USA, the European Central Bank is going to decide whether they are going to raise rates and by how much.

Friday (5/5): Unemployment Rate

• The unemployment data is usually the last lagging indicator for a recession, so if this starts to tick up quickly that could mean we are heading towards a recession rather quickly.

🤔 Did You Know

73% of Millennials are living “paycheck to paycheck” in 2023

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.