This past week, the sentiment around the markets has been somewhat of a mixed signal.

On one side, you have people who are positive we are entering a new bull market because the FED “should be done hiking rates.” On top of the markets doing fairly well over the past few weeks, it gives bulls hope it’s only up from here

On the other side of the coin, people are saying this is only a melt-up and that we are due for one more correction down because we still haven’t seen the worst yet.

🗓️ Weekly Outlook

Monday (4/17)

• China (CNY) | GDP YoY Q1 | 2100 CT

  • Previous (2.9%) → Forecast (4.0%)

• China (CNY) | Industrial Production | 2100 CT

  • Previous (2.4%) → Forecast (4.0%)

Tuesday (4/18)

• Canada (CAD) | Core CPI MoM (Mar) | 0730 CT

  • Previous (0.5%)

Wednesday (4/19)

• United Kingdom (GBP) | CPI YoY (Mar) | 0100 CT

  • Previous (10.4%) → Forecast (9.8%)

• Eurozone (EUR) | CPI YoY (Mar) | 0400 CT

  • Previous (6.9%) → Forecast (6.9%)

• United States (USD) | Crude Oil Inventories | 0930 CT

  • Previous (0.597M) → Forecast (-0.583M)

Thursday (4/20)

• Eurozone (EUR) | ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy | 0630 CT

• United States (USD) | Initial Jobless Claims | 0730 CT

  • Previous (239k) → Forecast (240k)

• United States (USD) | Existing Home Sales | 0900 CT

  • Previous (4.58M) → Forecast (4.5M)

📇 What To Watch Out For

The FED looks like it might start chilling out. Typically the FED will raise rates during QT until something breaks, while the banking system didn’t break. It was showing some severe signs of weakness. This was a good indicator for the FED to step back and ease off the rate hikes… for now! If anything, the market is anticipating one more rate hike of at most 25 basis points (.25%), which is why the markets are looking more optimistic.

China > USA. Don’t take this one the wrong way, but China is outpacing the US and the rest of the world in many things. This shows strength not only in China’s economy but also in its currency. Recently, this has been a big issue with talks of “De-Dollarization” and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) threatening the USD.

Soooo about that recession? I don’t think it’s safe to say that we’re out of the woods just yet; I think there might be some early optimism in the markets, and it’s important not to get too greedy just yet. While yes, the FED may have slowed or stopped their hiking cycle, that’s not the only factor for the markets to moon. We need to consider other factors, and I think this could be a melt-up phase in the markets, with one more push to the downside waiting to happen.

🐦 Twitter Takeaways

Inflation going down, but people are still hurting

Level up your macro investing game

BTC > Fiat

DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.